UK new car and van outlook
The latest market outlook for the new car and light commercial vehicle markets. The outlook is revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.
91³ÉÈË Data shop
To purchase more detailed data visit the 91³ÉÈË DataShop
The outlook reflects stronger than expected growth in the new car market, supported by new entrants. The UK economy is stabilising, although global trading conditions remains challenging with continuing uncertainty around the ceasefire and wider impact of the Middle East conflict. The shift to EVs is progressing rapidly, but the market is still expected to fall short of Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate targets, particularly for vans. High electricity prices and the confirmation of eVED, the new pence-per-mile tax on EVs from 2028, remain concerns. Some member views were gathered before the announcement that demonstrators would be excluded from the Electric Car Grant.
The outlook is typically revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.
LCVs = light commercial vehicles to 3.5t gvw. Fuel type split is within the total market data. Diesel and petrol include mild hybrids. BEV = Battery electric vehicle; PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; HEV = Hybrid electric vehicles.
91³ÉÈË outlook for 2026 to 2027 – as at July 2026
2026
- New car market is expected to rise to 2.183 million units, 8% above the 2025 outturn
- BEV car market to grow by 26.2%, pushing market share to 27.4% (from 23.4% in ’25)
- PHEV market to rise by 28.5% and push market share to 13.3% (vs 11.1% in ’25)
- HEV market to rise by 10.8% in volume terms, and to a 14.2% market share (13.9% in ’25)
- Petrol to decline -4.9%, pushing market share down to 40.9% (from 46.4% in ’25)
- Diesel market share to fall to 4.3% (from 5.1% in ’25) after a -9.5% fall in volumes
- LCV market is expected to growth by 0.2% to 316,000 units
- LCV BEV market (to 3.5T) to grow 30.8%, increasing market share to 11.5% (from 8.8% in ’25)
2027
- New car market anticipated to rise 2.9% on 2026 expectations to 2.245 million units
- BEV market to rise by a fifth in volume terms, pushing market share to 32.1%
- PHEV market to grow 13.1% and take market share up to 14.6%
- HEVs to grow 5.6%, edging market share up to 14.6%
- Petrol market to fall by -11.3% and cut market share to 35.2%
- Diesel market to decline by -15.4% and reduce market share to 3.5%
- LCV market is expected to rise by 0.6% on our 2026 expectations, to 318,000 units
- LCV BEV market to grow by 39% and push market share to 15.9%
Note: outlooks rounded to nearest 1,000 units (% changes based on the exact outlook). Reasonable care has been taken in preparing this information. It is not an exclusive aid for market analysis. Other sources and market intelligence should be reviewed.
Previous forecasts
July 2026 Outlook
April 2026 Outlook
January 2026 Outlook
October 2025 Outlook
April 2025 Outlook
July 2024 Outlook
91³ÉÈË Update
Sign up
Sign up to the 91³ÉÈË Update Newsletter for weekly automotive news and data
"*" indicates required fields